Worries grow over Russia testing NATO

Francesca Chambers

and Miles J. Herszenhorn

USA TODAY

NEW YORK – After an explosives-laden drone was discovered near a Ukrainian cargo plane at a German airport, European leaders did something they’d stopped short of doing before: publicly blame Russia.

For years, they’d suspected that Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind acts of sabotage across Europe, but there was little or no evidence to prove it. But recently, Moscow is raising even more suspicions.

Russian submarines have attempted to disable critical subsea cables in the Arctic. Russian drones have repeatedly violated Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace. And Polish authorities recently blamed Russia for starting a fire at a factory producing weapons for Ukraine.

The aggression has marked an escalation in the standoff between NATO leaders and Putin as the United States, Canada and Europe seek to deter Russia and support Ukraine without being dragged directly into the war.

'We see them really increasing their attacks,' said Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. 'They are testing how far they can go.'

As Russia has incurred severe losses on the battlefield, Putin has stepped up his attempts to scare Ukraine’s allies out of supporting them through so-called hybrid attacks, European officials and experts say. Hybrid warfare typically refers to unconventional attacks using unmarked soldiers, sabotage and cyberwarfare.

The attacks are aimed at intimidating NATO countries to pull back on assistance not only to Ukraine, said former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, but also to Eastern European nations that Russia covets.

'I think Putin’s instinct will be to find a space where pushing back is more difficult,' Fried said, 'and the Russians have the ability to smirk and deny responsibility while everybody knows it’s them.'

The attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany in August was particularly dangerous, officials said. If the drone had exploded, it would have caused significant damage and potentially killed civilians.

German authorities said the drone components were known to them from 'Russian hybrid operations and its war against Ukraine.' Intelligence also pointed to 'people being involved who acted on behalf of Russian state entities,' the country’s interior minister said.

Concern over sabotage

The escalation of Russian hybrid attacks and other acts of sabotage against NATO countries comes as the Pentagon is weighing whether to significantly reduce its military presence in Europe.

Meanwhile, some European countries are increasingly concerned, based on intelligence, that Russia could launch a military operation against a NATO country in an attempt to test Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty. Article 5 requires all NATO members to treat an attack against one ally as an attack against them all.

The Danish government’s defense intelligence service said on Sept. 24, for instance, that 'there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters during a Sept. 23 news conference that the United States is worried Russia’s war in Ukraine will spread into neighboring European countries.

'Be it through a hybrid attack, be it through a sabotage attack, be it through a misunderstanding,' Rubio said, 'some pilot went the wrong way, and all of a sudden we’ve got active combat.'

A Russian drone struck a train on the Ukraine-Poland border earlier in September, narrowly missing a train carrying European politicians and diplomats.

Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, told USA TODAY in August that allies should be clear-eyed and ready to confront the threat posed by Russia.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said NATO countries should publicly and forcefully call out the Russian acts of sabotage but added that he has seen no evidence of Moscow preparing for a large-scale military attack against Estonia or any other NATO ally while the Russian military is taking a battering in Ukraine.

'We may see larger-scale provocations or something more serious, but it is not about full-scale aggression. We don’t see it coming,' he said. 'We cannot allow Putin to play with our fears.'

Kallas said that whether Europe gets pulled into a wider war with Russia 'very much depends on' the alliance’s response.

If the Americans are saying very clearly that Article 5 stands, she said, then the Russians know what they are risking: full-scale war with Europe.

That is why it is important that Europe continues to build up its military capabilities, Kallas said.

How far will Putin go?

NATO nations, including the United States, have emphasized the necessity of deterrence while declining to say what would be a triggering event.

After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, former President Joe Biden repeatedly warned that a direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be World War III and must be avoided at all costs.

But NATO’s determination to avoid escalation is why Putin has continued to test the alliance’s limits, according to Ivo Daalder, who served as U.S. ambassador to NATO in the Obama administration. He said the question NATO leaders should be asking is not whether a Russian act of aggression crosses the Article 5 threshold, but how NATO will respond.

'No matter what the provocation, we have been more worried that this will lead to a war than we are in sending Putin the message that we have serious red lines that we keep,' Daalder said.

After Germany officially blamed Russia for the attempted drone attack, many NATO leaders issued statements of solidarity with Berlin.

President Donald Trump said that 'Putin is not looking to attack NATO territory.' On Sept. 18, Trump said that Russia has been 'attacking Ukrainian allies for approximately five years.'

Trump has sent mixed signals on Russia. He signed into law a bill authorizing new Russian sanctions and called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a capable leader at the United Nations, then invited Putin to join him in Miami for a Group of 20 summit.

After Germany officially blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Schkeuditz, many NATO leaders issued statements of solidarity with Berlin.

Axel Schmidt/REUTERS file