Poll: Trump’s claims of voter fraud sow distrust

Nathan Layne and Jason Lange

REUTERS

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s yearslong campaign to undermine faith in U.S. elections has gained broad traction with the American public, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows, potentially creating fertile ground for misinformation heading into November’s midterm elections.

The six-day poll completed April 20 showed sharp partisan divides over trust in elections, with solid majorities of Republicans saying fraud is widespread – despite a lack of evidence to support this claim – and favoring federal law enforcement presence at polls.

Some 46% of respondents said they agreed with the statement that there are large numbers of fraudulent ballots cast by noncitizens in U.S. elections, with 82% of Republicans agreeing compared with 18% of Democrats and 38% of independents.

About 53% of respondents said they were worried about fraudulent mail-in or absentee ballots, compared with 43% who said they were not, with partisan division again apparent: 83% of Republicans expressed concern, versus 33% of Democrats.

Taken together, the responses indicate that years of messaging by Trump and his allies casting doubt on voting have resonated strongly with Republicans, particularly around claims that noncitizens vote in significant numbers and that mail-in ballots are unreliable, despite repeated audits and academic research finding fraud in either case to be exceedingly rare.

More broadly, the poll suggests that many Americans have been primed to accept claims of wrongdoing in November’s elections, when Democrats are favored to win back the House and control of the Senate will also be up for grabs amid voter discontent over the war with Iran and stubbornly high inflation.

Kelly Rader, research director at States United Democracy Center, a nonpartisan group that works to safeguard free and fair elections, said the Reuters/Ipsos poll results point to the enduring impact of false claims made by Trump and his allies.

'People are responding to them, particularly Republicans, because they’re listening to the leaders that they trust, and it’s creating this vulnerability in people to believe lies about the election,' Rader said in an interview.

The online poll of 4,557 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, found bipartisan support for requiring voters to show official ID, with 77% backing the idea, including 63% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans.

While the responses suggested broad sympathy with Trump’s call for voter ID requirements, the poll did not address stricter Republican-proposed measures under debate in Congress.

The SAVE Act, which would require proof of U.S. citizenship to register or update voter registration for federal elections, has passed the House but faces an uphill battle in the Senate amid Democratic warnings of disenfranchisement.

The poll found 63% of Republicans believe Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him, despite the absence of evidence supporting his claims of widespread fraud.

A bipartisan majority of Americans, including 79% of Democrats and 71% of Republicans, said they are generally confident their ballots will be counted in elections – a finding Rader pointed to as a silver lining in the poll.

The poll found 63% of Republicans believe President Donald Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images File