HOW HIGH?

Dale Denwalt The Oklahoman | USA TODAY NETWORK

After hearing the state’s top drug enforcement agent speak to Congress, you might be excused for thinking that 98% of marijuana grown in Oklahoma has reached the black market.

In speaking with lawmakers and the public, Donnie Anderson, director of the Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs, has repeatedly cited a key statistic that has baffled people who work in the medical marijuana industry. To them, it’s a result of a formula with murky and outdated inputs that assumes the most extreme possibilities.

Although he describes the very real issue of

Marijuana is shown at a growing facility in Hollis. Industry experts say indoor plants are smaller than outdoor plants, which they say means that they do not produce as much marijuana as state narcotics officials estimate. SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN FILE

black market marijuana and the influence of criminal organizations, Anderson also says more than 85 million pounds of marijuana from 87 million plants logged into the state’s marijuana tracking system are “unaccounted for.”

Where could those plants have gone? Business owners and industry advocates say the “missing”marijuana can be explained if you look deeper in the numbers.

They worry the seemingly overstated statistic could be used as ammo in political discussions about regulating the industry. Oklahoma’s “tough on crime” lawmakers regularly cite reports from the Bureau of Narcotics when making policy decisions about the medical marijuana industry.

To arrive at the assertion that 85 million pounds of marijuana are unaccounted for, the Bureau of Narcotics assumes that one pound of marijuana comes from a single plant.

In September, Anderson spoke to the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee for a hearing titled, “Invasion of the Homeland: How China is Using Illegal Marijuana to Build a Criminal Network Across America.”He repeated the claim about missing marijuana as he spoke about Oklahoma’s “staggering oversupply” of marijuana.

“Between March of 2024 to March of 2025, licensed grow sites reported 87,210,960 plants in the state of Oklahoma, yet dispensaries sold just a little over 1.6 million pounds of marijuana in a dispensary,” Anderson told Congress. “Given that one plant typically yields one pound of processed marijuana, over 85 million plants are unaccounted for, representing $153 billion in missing product and proceeds.”

But Jed Green, the executive director of the advocacy group Oklahomans for Responsible Cannabis Action, calls the claim inaccurate because the current way of cultivating marijuana rarely leads to one plant producing one pound of smokable marijuana.

“We can’t make good public policy based on bad math,” Green said.

Green said he understands why state narcotics officials would be making such an assumption. During the decades of enforcement before State Question 788 legalized medical marijuana, it was more common for the average plant to produce that much marijuana because the plants were larger.

“Prior to legal commercial operations, that potentially could have been a rough average of what they were seeing as they were interdicting illegal grows, the majority of them outdoors where plants are bigger,” Green said. “Their math is based on historical experience, which is valuable. They have not, until recent years, had the ability to utilize seed-to-sale tracking data in order to really dive into what production is and what consumer behaviors are.”

For this article, The Oklahoman asked officials at the state Bureau of Narcotics to describe how the agency reached the estimate, and to clarify its stance in the face of complaints that it doesn’t account for processing and biomass waste. Along with an overview of the agency’s actions against illegal grows and straw owners, Public Information Officer Mark Woodward responded with previously released statistics and reports that the agency says proves that more marijuana is produced than can be reasonably used by Oklahoma’s medical marijuana patient population.

There are several reasons why a single plant won’t produce a pound of marijuana, Green said.

For one, he said, a large number of plants don’t survive long enough to harvest. And the plants that do reach harvest are then dried out.

“A marijuana plant loses up to 90% moisture weight during that process,” Green said.

While a single plant is capable of producing several pounds of smokable marijuana if it’s grown early in the season, given space to grow and has sunlight, he added, the current industrial standard for cultivation focuses more on efficiency.

“With indoor commercial setups the production yield is increased by growing a much higher number of plants, which have a lower yield per plant,” he said. “Simply put, we have a lot of indoor plants indoor plants come in well below that pound-per-plant average.”

Not even the state’s marijuana regulator can back up the Bureau of Narcotics’ assertion. Using the Metrc seed to sale tracking system, the Oklahoma Medical Marijuana Authority has access to all sorts of data about where marijuana goes once a plant is tagged.

“We don’t have data that supports this claim. We have a team that reviews Metrc data on a daily basis to monitor for irregularities, diversion indicators and/or any other unusual activity,” said Porsha Riley, the agency’s director of communications.

Different types of products made from marijuana plants also explain why the volume that hits the market is often smaller than the agency’s one-poundper- plant estimate. Marijuana that is harvested and dried can be sold as-is. This is usually called “flower”and is sold loose in packages or in pre-rolled joints, making up about half of the marijuana sales in Oklahoma.

The other half of the market is from concentrates, like vapes, lotions or dabs.

“This is where the math really starts to break down,” Green said.

Around 30 pounds of dried marijuana is needed to get two pounds of the distillate oil used in vape cartridges.

“If you extract marijuana, you’re only going to get 1% to 10% return by weight in concentrate, so the concentrate market eats up a huge chunk of the marijuana that is produced,” Green said. “None of this is factored into the Bureau of Narcotics’ equation.”

“With indoor commercial setups the production yield is increased by growing a much higher number of plants, which have a lower yield per plant. Simply put, we have a lot of indoor plants indoor plants come in well below that pound-per-plant average.”

Jed Green, executive director of Oklahomans for Responsible Cannabis Action